
Fashion retail legend Tom Chapman with founder of Luxurynsight Jonathan Siboni
Tom Chapman is a fashion retail legend, having created cult high fashion store Matches in London, and turned it into a runaway online retail success story, selling it a deal worth more than $1bn in 2017. He is now an active private investor in innovative consumer brands. Here he speaks with Jonathan Siboni, founder of Paris-based luxury data company Luxurynsight, on data, luxury and the future
Tom Chapman: It’s fascinating to see what you’ve been doing, the data you find about brands and understanding markets. I am intrigued by your purchase of Heuritech, your 360-degree view of luxury, consumers, brands, pricing architecture – it is incredible. I am disappointed I didn’t have these tools to hand during my career!
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Jonathan Siboni: Thank you, Tom. Heuritech analyses three to five million social-media images per day to understand what people like, what they wear, how they wear it, shapes and prints. For more than 10 years it has been using visual recognition to create a predictive model. We can predict up to 24 months, and with simulation we have reached 92 per cent accuracy. We are already integrated in systems for brands such as Uniqlo in Japan, where they put us, via API, in all the production facilities. When they launch a basic T-shirt in France, they use our model to adjust colours, volume, and ship directly to markets.
TC: So you are doing predictive analytics geographically as well, looking at specific markets and countries to predict what will perform?

Tom Chapman and his wife, Ruth Chapman, built Matches from a boutique to a global luxury platform
JS: We can even do it at city level. With Nike, for example, we’ve been capturing millions of images of New York marathons over the years, so we know what percentage run in Nike trainers, and what types. With creatives, inspiration and intelligence can be overrated because they are influenced by what you read, the music you listen to, history, travel. We add a layer to creativity by bringing to it a real-time vision.
TC: I’ve always believed in a perfect balance of magic and logic. As a bricks-and-mortar retailer, we had 14 stores holding different merchandise and I wanted to see how we could cross-sell to our clients, so in the early 2000s we digitised the total inventory. I did this because I personally knew the clients who came into store, understood their experience, had conversations with them and analysed their preferred brands and products. Jonathan, how can a program predict that? How do you drive changes for brands with such an incredible amount of data?
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JS: When we created the company 10 to 15 years ago, there was not enough data. We had to send people to stores to collect prices and add them on an Excel file. So I created a “GPS” for luxury, a kind of sat nav that tells you what is happening around you. Even though you know where you are going, it finds you the shortest route to your destination, which for brands could be profit, growth, new clientele, diversification and so on. Nowadays there is too much data but because it is iterative we know the type you need, when you need it, and what for. We improved the tech and it accelerated during Covid as brands moved to online sales, collecting prices digitally worldwide in 100 countries as e-commerce arrived everywhere.

In his company Luxurynsight, Jonathan Siboni combines a deep knowledge of luxury brands with data analytics to help heritage luxury brands modernise their strategy
TC: What is the challenge today?
JS: The pace of change! People have reduced attention spans, they see something new on TikTok, things happen fast. When you are a creative branded product or experience, you have your vision and you share it. Data must describe that offer – and the demand for it.
TC: So how do you do that?
JS: You have access to all your consumer data about demand, age, preferences, what they buy. I will see what brands are selling, what product was offered on the market, in what size, price, segments. I will map the offer in real time: price, price differential, volume, size, and so on, where I stand versus competition. I don’t tell brands what to do. I provide the ingredients and brands are the Michelin-star chef. They choose the ingredients they want, they cook!
TC: When I think of the offer, it is really a personal decision. For some a branded key fob is a luxury, for others it’s about time and experience. How do you map all that?
JS: We look at the three reasons people buy: objectively, they like the price, material, quality; subjectively, it’s about the dream, desire and love for the brand; last, they want to show it off – or not if it’s quiet luxury. Relativity in decision-making depends on culture, service, experience, and over the last generation service has come to the fore. Brands have evolved from family maisons serving the international wealthy, to become diversified and globalised. However, if you grow from a €10 million to €20 billion revenue business, it becomes impossible to deliver the personal service you are reputed for. Sometimes brands segment the customers and give VIP access to certain stores. Of course, you can only offer this quality of relationship in your home market. So the objective of the brands is to level up their position.

Tom Chapman with journalist Gianluca Longo
TC: I agree, Jonathan, it’s challenging as we have the capability to offer a much better level of service experience. I stay in Aman resorts across the world, so why when I arrive don’t they know what drink I want? The hotels are not communicating with each other, even though they are part of the same group. You can walk into Hermès in New York: do they know you, do they have facial recognition software, how is the digital experience? Luxury is about so much more than the product. It’s about the whole experience.
I’ve been in retail for a long time, seeing everything suddenly available and brands coming in to research pricing architectures. Consumers became aware of pricing and we entered this cycle of discount promotional activity and clearing dead stock. It took away the luxury element and desirability of product. How do you drive scarcity at scale? Hermès and Philippe Patek have done it, there are also lots of brands that have been successful at it, but not necessarily true luxury brands. How can you manage this conversation with a consumer who feels overwhelmed and detached by the amount of product and its ubiquity?
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JS: Well, this is a fundamental question because it is about cycles. In the 1980s, French investors saw luxury could be big business, started investing, buying and consolidating, so now we have a $350 billion-plus industry. But after this cycle, what comes next? Luxury has become a huge industry with lots of commodities. Customers take revenge when brands increase prices too high. Luxury is about differentiation: brands need to ask themselves where they come from, what is their USP. Jean-Louis Dumas, Chair of Hermès for nearly 30 years from the late 70s, said we have to grandir sans grossir – grow without getting fat. The view was we could easily grow 20 to 30 per cent a year, but we restrict it to eight to 10 per cent. Where groups are listed, there’s a huge pressure from investors quarter to quarter: where do you find growth? This is the challenge.

Jonathan Siboni speaking at a panel with the Financial Times on navigating pricing and market trends within the luxury industry today
Samantha Welsh: So brands review their archive, refocus on craft to differentiate and grow slowly?
TC: Yes, that’s interesting, isn’t it? I was talking with some brand owners the other evening about vintage clothing. They said they need to have an interest in buying vintage now, because the quality is so much better than a lot of product made today, and it is another way of communicating with customers and creating loyalty. For me, with Chanel, the price has gone up, there’s a desperation to throw new designers in, they have lost their way. Whereas you go into an Hermès store and they still have the saddle sitting in the corner – the customer can understand the brand, they have a sense of humour, there is a whole experience. The Row and Loro Piana, the quiet luxury brands, are consistently producing good, well-made product that consumers are attracted to and engaging with. Even though The Row is relatively small, revenue grew fast from $50 million to around $300 million, and the relationship they build with customers sets them for further growth.
JS: The Row defines luxury in a way that could have been written in the 1970s: “We have a brand. We know what we’re doing. We have a style. We bring very high-quality products and clear design. We’ll stick to what the brand represents.” Right now there is loyalty and respect for resilience and clear direction. This is the problem brands face in China. There are too many customers to build loyalty: there are six million millionaires in China and 117 cities with more than a million inhabitants. Twenty years ago China was the factory of the world, 10 years ago it became the market of the world, now it is the laboratory of the world. The people getting rich are different people. Customers are getting younger. Brands may grow revenues 20 to 30 per cent a year but 60 to 70 per cent of that revenue represents new customers, meaning you are losing customers and chasing a new base. There is no loyalty so you have zero customer base.

Tom and Ruth Chapman pictured with Michel Martono at Hotel Il Pellicano’s 60th birthday party
TC: Your knowledge of China is second to none. What is China’s share of the luxury market?
JS: Before Covid, China represented just 10 per cent. Post Covid, the Chinese have started to travel again. Japan’s market share increased 52 per cent in Q2 2024, but that was not down to Japanese consumers buying, but wealthy Chinese. They also go to South Korea, Paris – with tax free it could be 30 per cent cheaper to buy the product – less now to London with the removal of tax-free shopping and Brexit. So the percentage share for China has been up to 35 per cent, though now it’s closer to 25 per cent. I am optimistic it can go to 45 to 50 per cent by 2030, given their engagement.
China is so huge, the home luxury market is so massive that the market cap for spirits brand Maotai exceeds that of Hermès globally. New Chinese brands can be successful without having grown internationally, provided they chase cyclic growth through engaging with next gen long term. A young person, a guo child, is the pride of this culture, particularly in younger businesses like make-up or fast fashion. One Chinese cosmetics start-up founded in 2020 now has 17 per cent of the Chinese market, ahead of L’Oréal. So local brands are finding new ways to engage with next gen and telling them be proud to be Chinese.
TC: Do you think heritage still plays a significant part in creating a luxury brand?
JS: Yes, and that’s because the one thing you cannot buy is time. The Chinese love history, they have a lot in common with the French – they love culture, they research and know our brands better than we do. Heritage is what makes something unique and hard to replicate. This is why vintage is not developed in China as it is in the West. They want authenticity.

‘What I feel is most important now is trust: in the product, the brand, the luxury experience’ – Tom Chapman
SW: What is the plan long term for vintage for luxury brands?
JS: Some product is too hard to find in store, so you buy it secondhand on the grey market – a Hermès Birkin or a Patek Philippe collectable. Vintage is old amazing products, like cars. The new secondhand is somewhere in the middle: there is no demand for it, it is just available and cheap. Brands don’t know how to operate secondhand because of issues with authentication and condition. At some point they will need to, to re-engage with their clients, and because clients are creating their own style. However, they will lose margin.
TC: We’re looking at the biggest wealth transfer between generations in history. Young people will acquire enormous wealth and they love vintage. We were talking about craft and the importance of craft in value. We’ve seen disposable fashion, like the Balenciaga logo T-shirts or the sneaker that is a moment in time. Will this next-gen consumer be more focused on the storytelling and authenticity, the craft, the makers, and the way products are made?
JS: Yes, but we will need to segment more. Influencers and TikTok are huge, there’s a polarisation of consumers and how they want to be identified. Brands need to understand the values of the people they want to engage with, so if customers want to save the planet then they need to go green and B Corp. So, yes, I think next-gen will increasingly rate credibility.
TC: What I feel is most important now is trust: in the product, the brand, the luxury experience. Trust will be really important in creating businesses in the future. And that comes from great leadership, strong direction, the vision for where you’re going and sticking to that vision and strategy.
Series coordinator: Charlotte Martin. Online editor: Cleo Scott. Chief sub-editor: Marion Jones.
This article was first published in the Winter 2026 print issue of LUX. Read this continuing series of LUX x Luxurynsight Dialogues monthly online at LUX magazine




















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